Wednesday, 23 May 2007

Inflation, Rural Distress, Milking the Dry Cow Therapy

Dry Cow Therapy, Rural Distress, Indian Economists : New Agriculture Strategy
From Second Green Revolution to Milking the Cow Dry :

The concerned Indian Prime Minister, has been left searching for the right answers from all the agricultural experts, while his own Agriculture Minister ignores the suicides from his home state and manages the strings of the Indian cricket team, a job no doubt he loves more than finding answers to the task entrusted to him as Indian Agriculture Minister - saving farmers from rural distress.
Another case of Humpty Dumpty on the rural front, as Indians get busy with cricket season.
Even the Indian Sensex Minister is now feeling short changed, by the massive imports bills, deposited on his doorsteps, on the food front, which threaten to blow a hole through his economic strategy of industrial development and growth in Services sectors.
Soon after suggesting budgetary support and subsidies for sugar exporters, the Agriculture Minister has gone ahead on a global buying spree for wheat. He just does not seem to like Punjabi and Haryanvi wheat. It is not tasty enough for him or maybe a trifle too full of pesticides for even his liking.
In a bid to wash off the spots on the UPA governments Three Year Achievements, and what even the lacklustre opposition performance by the NDA could not accomplish, is being accomplished in the rural fields of Vidarbha and West Bengal.
Understandably, genuine Congress election strategists are worried.
Let us examine the content of the Prime Minister's concern about Indian rural distress, worded as it is in very general terms and coming on the heels of the three years of crowning achievements of the Central ruling UPA coalition and the electoral losses in Punjab and Uttar Pradesh.
In his directions to Planning Commission, Finance Minister and Cricket Minister he has pointed out :
1. Poor growth in farm output, at approximately 2%, is the main cause of agrarian and rural distress
2. There is need for focussing on short and medium term strategies for raising farm output
3. Burden of blame must be strategically be shared with states, as according to his understanding, the Central UPa government is having to face too much unnecessary criticism as being the most responsible player in the rural distress drama of Indian politicians and urban economists. The solution to this is seen as rewarding those states which come out with agrarian focussed programmes, agro climatic and local rural growth strategies, with possible budgetary support.

Surprisingly, the music of the old song of ushering in a Second Green Revolution, futures trading in commodities markets, contract farming, agro processing Special Export Zones, seems to have been lost in the wake of Vidarbha and Uttar Pradesh debacles.

He has stated "I would only like to emphasise that whatever strategies we choose to adopt must deliver some results in the short and medium term, so that tangible benefits are visible - to farmers, consumers and the rural economy as a whole.
This is important if we have to avert any crisis in the agrarian sector and fulfil the needs of a growing economy."
All the king's horses and all the kings men, couldn't put Humpty together again ... He directed the Planning Commission to come up with a major programme to enhance central support to those states that prepare localised plans.

This obviously means he is still not prepared to ask his heavy weight Cricket Minister to choose between Cricket, Food Imports or solving Agrarian Distress in his home state of Maharashtra.

The poor Finance Minister is keeping his cards close to his chest and will surely resist tooth and nail, attempts at further central aid to states because he himself knows the dubious record of states in preparing sensitive rural programmes of integrated development, as also knowing that further expansion of agricultural land exploitation is not feasible. Also known as the milking the dry cow therapy.
But the problem is who will be brave enougfh to bell the cat ?

Saturday, 19 May 2007

Cricket, Wheat, Punjab, Politicians and Economists

Subsides for sugar exporters and love for wheat importers - Googly bowling by Indian Cricket Minister :
For the second year in the running, India is importing wheat. Last year the government justified imports on account of lower production. This year it is being justified in the name of higher prices for farmers.

In order to meet the buffer stock requirements, the government has decided to import up to 50 lakh tonnes of wheat this year. Thanks to the government’s policies, from a wheat surplus nation, India today has been reduced to the world’s largest importer of wheat. An article on the various reasons used by Indian Cricket Minister, to justify his love for imports of wheat into India from all over the world.

Here is article analyzing the Cricket Minister's love for wheat imports from all corners of the earth.
Maybe eating lots of imported wheat from all corners of the earth, courtesy the Indian Cricket Minister, all the Punjab da puttars will win the next Cricket World Cup for India..

Wheat Imports : Subverting Procurement, Cheating Farmers - Bhaskar Goswami

For the second year in the running, India is importing wheat. Last year the government justified imports on account of lower production. This year it is being justified in the name of higher prices for farmers.

In order to meet the buffer stock requirements, the government has decided to import up to 50 lakh tonnes of wheat this year. Thanks to the government’s policies, from a wheat surplus nation, India today has been reduced to the world’s largest importer of wheat.

Alarm bells began ringing in early March when, despite predictions of a bumper wheat harvest in India, the US Wheat Associates - a trade body funded by the federal government and US wheat producers - said India will import up to 30 lakh tonnes of wheat this year. Well, not only has the government followed this diktat, but has revised this estimate by 20 lakh tonnes more as a small favour to multinational grain corporations.

The rush to go for imports right now is questionable. With an additional 18 lakh hectares under wheat, the production has increased by forty lakh tonnes. Since the peak wheat procurement season is during the second half of May, there is ample time left for the government to meet its procurement target of 151 lakh tonnes. On 1st May, the Food Secretary said that stocks are adequate to last till January 2008. On 5th May, the Food and Agriculture Minister, Sharad Pawar announced, “Last year, the buffer stock position was only two million tonne, this time it is 4.5 million tonne. That is why I am quite comfortable about the buffer stock.”

The Minister justified the move to import wheat by adding, “However, I want to build up stock for the next year”. This, when the wheat produced is adequate to meet the country’s requirements and there is no shortage in the buffer stock. Wheat for the next season is yet to be planted but the government is apprehensive of a bad crop next year!

"If the farmer is getting a better price, as Agriculture Minister I am the happiest person. However, as a Food Minister, if I face any problem, I will import," said Pawar. He was referring to farmers getting a better price by selling to private companies thereby leaving little for the government to pick up.
This is a replay of the 2006 argument, when the Food Corporation of India (FCI) failed miserably to meet its procurement target. By offering a lower price to farmers, the government made out a case for imports, which translated to a windfall of Rs. 5,100 crores to grain corporations like the Australian Wheat Board, Glencore, Toepfer, Cargill, etc.

This year, the procurement is worse than what it was last year. By end of April, even half of the procurement target was not met, and a shortfall of 25 lakh tonnes by the end of the procurement season is possible. This is because the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of Rs. 850 per quintal offered by the government is much lower than the prevailing market rate of over Rs. 1,000. Naturally, bulk of the wheat is being cornered by the private sector. As expected, the gains to grain corporations this year will also be much higher than 2006. Lack of rainfall in Europe, Australia and South Africa has affected wheat production and depressed world wheat stocks to their lowest in the last 25 years. Wheat from Ukraine and Russia will hit markets only by August, while Pakistan is still a small exporter. Major wheat exporter, Argentina, has banned wheat export to control domestic prices.

The only players left are the US and Canada, where the price of wheat is already up by $40 per tonne over last year. Given the global supply crunch, announcement of imports by India will push the price through the roof, as it happened last year. While last year India paid around $207 per tonne of wheat (approximately Rs. 930 per quintal), the cost this year is likely to be upwards of $300 per tonne (or Rs. 1,200 per quintal at the current exchange rate), a rich bonus for corporations.

Instead of doling out Rs. 6,000 crores to corporations for importing 50 lakh tonnes of wheat, a hike in the MSP would have fetched an even higher price to farmers than what they are receiving from private companies and also helped FCI meet the procurement target. But then that never was the intent.
By paying a premium to grain corporations and denying a fair price to our farmers, the government has sent a clear message to farmers: they should no longer expect a guaranteed price for what they produce.

Notwithstanding the government’s claims, in reality it is building a case to dismantle the price support and procurement mechanism which are designed to protect farmers from price volatility and the poor from starvation. The Economic Survey 2005-06 states “Market for farm output continues to depend heavily on expensive government procurement and distribution systems. A shift from the current MSP and public procurement system and developing alternative product markets are essential for crop diversification and broad-based agricultural development”.

The government is following this dictum. By deliberately offering a lower MSP and importing at higher costs, the system is being covertly scrapped. The Agriculture Produce Marketing Committee Act has been amended to allow private agencies to directly procure food grains from farmers. The amended Essential Commodities Act allows storage and movement of food grains. Agriculture commodities can be traded in futures markets involving speculation. No wonder multinational grain firms are cornering bulk of the food grains produced across the country.

There is more. As part of the larger game plan to shut down the FCI, the government is also toying with the idea of issuing food stamps to the Below Poverty Line families, which will reduce the food subsidy bill. There is another proposal to replace the Public Distribution System (PDS) with direct cash payments to poor families.

To reduce storage costs, the government is considering playing in the futures market in the months when it needs food grains for running the PDS - there would be no need for an MSP in such a case. The warehousing system is also being privatized. Recommendations of the consultancy firm McKinsey hired by the Food Ministry are already being implemented and FCI’s capital costs have been reduced, workforce slashed, minimum buffer stock for rice lowered, and private companies engaged in procurement.

From all this, it is clear that instead of fixing the problems at FCI, the government has decided to fix the blame on FCI and close it down. That there are major problems with the functioning of the FCI is undeniable. However, dismantling it will amount to another safety net for farmers as well as the poor, who depend on the PDS, going down. This, of course, suits the government. After all, food subsidy for the poor costs the exchequer Rs 23,986 crores during 2006-07.

The Indian State has a history of subverting procurement and price support mechanisms. Back in 2002, dairy cooperatives were on the brink of being wiped out courtesy dumping by the developed countries, which was facilitated by the State. In case of cotton, the Maharashtra government subverted the monopoly cotton procurement scheme and today the price being paid to cotton farmers is a fraction of what they received earlier. Similarly, Marketfed in Kerala, which procures pepper from farmers, is facing subversion. The cases of cardamom, coconut, cashew – in fact, almost all agri-commodities – have a common thread running through them: deliberate subversion of procurement and manipulation of support price.

The intentions of the government are quite clear – deny farmers a higher price for their produce and dismantle the price support and procurement machinery. While farmers may presently be getting a higher price by selling wheat to private players, the euphoria is unlikely to last long.
In the absence of MSP and procurement by government, there are very high chances of concentration of agri-business corporations. Once this cartel takes over, they will dictate the price to Indian farmers. With imports being made a norm, the future of wheat farmers is indeed bleak.
It is time to play a requiem for India’s wheat revolution.

Bhaskar Goswami Blog - http://bhaskargoswami.blogspot.com/

Wednesday, 21 February 2007

Consolidated Control of Food Chain

Consolidated Control of Food Chain
Oakland Institute USA, has released a New Policy Brief Reveals that Consolidated Control of Food Leads to Declining Food Security, Economic Health, and Labor Standards :

Facing Goliath : Challenging the Impacts of Retail Consolidation on our Local Economies, Communities, and Food Security
This new policy brief from the Oakland Institute exposes how corporate consolidation in food retail has put our access to a reliable supply of healthy and affordable food at risk.

The top five food retailers, which now control more than half of all grocery sales in the country, have gained unprecedented market power," said Katy Mamen, Oakland Institute Fellow and author of the Policy Brief. "As a result, cost savings garnered through increased bargaining power are generally not being passed on to the consumer, supermarkets are abandoning low-income communities where profit margins are lower, and labor standards are being forced down."

The shift from small and medium scale food stores to big box stores brings broader economic turmoil for many communities. When a retail mega-store enters a community, independent shops that serve the local community are often forced to close. New Wal-Mart stores in a community have been associated with increased poverty levels and a decline in locally owned and operated businesses.
"In the U.S., the independent business owner is held in high regard - but small businesses throughout the food supply chain, from farmers to processors to grocers are being forced out as consolidation continues, undermining the American Dream," said Mamen.

The Policy Brief teases out the architecture of change in the food supply chain, outlines some of the key impacts on local communities, and suggests strategies for bringing balance back to the food retail landscape, including:

* Developing successful and innovative regional distribution and retail models;

* Re-creating real retail diversity that includes both locally-owned outlets that source a majority of their products locally and products that are direct marketed by producers;

* Fostering locally-owned and operated retail outlets in low-income communities;

* Working to balance the public subsidy and support system, which currently disproportionately favors large supermarket chains over independent markets;

* Raising public awareness about the social, economic and environmental benefits of locally owned and operated grocery stores.

Facing Goliath : Challenging the Impacts of Retail Consolidation on our Local Economies, Communities, and Food Security is a publication of the Oakland Institute, a think tank for research, analysis, and action whose mission is to increase public participation and promote fair debate on critical social, economic, and environmental justice issues.

Thursday, 15 February 2007

Prime Ministers's Valentines Gift

Prime Minister Man Mohan Singh, has decided to give a Valentines Gift to North Indian wheat farmers, of his own accord.
On Valentine's Day, mindful of the falling wheat production levels, and unmindful of the disincentives, that encircle Indian food growing farmers - while the Commerce Ministry and Agriculture Ministry, are busy entertaining the US Commerce Secretary, rather than rebutting his agricultural prescriptions, the Prime Minister has not told the Indian farmers that this Valentine's gift from him is a double edged sword, and actually, one more sacrifice they must make for the nation.
Vish ka pyala pee lo mere lal ... kisan bhai

Jai Jawan Jai Kisan !!!

With much sarcasm, his Agriculture Minister, Sharad Pawar, had claimed last year, at beginning of procurement season, that as Food Minister, it was his "duty to import wheat from anywhere in the world, that he found it cheap".
And that as Food Minister of India, he is more concerned about storage and transportation charges of North Indian wheat, to South Indian wheat eaters.
Thus he justified paying a higher price to Australian farmers than he would tolerate paying to Indian wheat growing farmers.
Thus maybe now, there is a case for having two separate ministers in India for Agriculture, one for North India and one for South India as per the logic of this minister. Or maybe it is just too many duties he is is burdened with for him to be able to do justice to all his contradictory roles.

This year it seems the reasons being given are that it forms part of a slew of measures to arrest inflation.
Wheat and milk export have been banned.
The Cricket Minister and the Sensex Minister, are busy playing the Pied Piper with Indian farmers and Indian consumers.

India currently exports less than 1 lakh tonnes of wheat.
Indian wheat farmers currently produce about 72 million tonnes annually.
India usually imports much more.
Indian inflation has touched 6.58 percent.
45 lakh tonnes of wheat imported by Sharad Pawar, is already in Indian markets.

What a country India is. Incredible India. Rising inflation - ban wheat exports !!!

1. Cant the Indian economy and industry import less oil, introduce fuel energy conservation practices, to stop global warming and play a responsible role in the climate change debate ? In climate change summits, Indian leaders and bureaucrats, blame poverty for India's energy bill, and dependence on hydrocarbon fuels. They mention the average energy consumption of the rural villager and do not mention the fuel guzzling Daimler Chrysler cars being bought by Indians, to show how eco sensitive Indians traditionally are. Real joke, but a trifle absurd one ....
They can fool Indian farmers, but they will not be able to fool the world once the global powers realize the double speak played by Indian elite in climate change arguments, and India's role in pushing up global temperatures.
After all global oil prices are falling for quite some time now, and the civilian nuclear handshake with USA has been accomplished.
2. Cant the Indian stock market, transform to bear from bull, and come to the rescue of Shri Man Mohan Singh, and the Sensex Minister, Shri Chidambaram and relieve currency and monetary pressures on Indian economy ? Cant RBI step in ?
3. Cant the American Commerce Secretary and Agriculture Secretary, help the Indian Commerce Minister with free food imports ?
4. Cant top Indian software companies, export more software services to balance out the import oil and energy bill ?
5. Cant Indian navratnas and private industry, stop importing defence supplies and announce 100% defence materials indigenous production and non reliance on foreign suppliers this coming Republic Day ?
6. Cant the Special Export Zones be incentivised and forced to compete with Chinese imports rather than only focussing on exports in preparation for WTO regime ?
7. Cant the government ministers accept a salary cut this year and eat less wheat ?
8. Cant there be a question about this on Kaun Banega CrorePati ?
9. Could they not forecast wheat outputs in advance and have to intervene only like the arhatiya at harvest time to depress wholesale prices ?
10. Why are the farmers not allowed to enter 10 year advance wheat export contracts with Africa ?
11. Cant all the leading industrialists of India, and the industry bodies and commerce federations, come together in national interest, to arrest rising inflation in India as a small contribution to Shining India ?
12. Cant the finance companies, mortgage banks, construction companies, and housing builders, be persuaded to reduce house prices and work at lower profit margins, as a small sacrfice towards arresting spiralling inflation ? Afterall farmlands, are available very cheap as farmers are dying off one by one.


Indian farmers can text so many questions and answers, if only Shah Rukh Khan will ask these question on prime time media. Aaj Ki Raat...kisanon ke saath...sarkaar se kuchh sawaal ?
The farmers of India, will be ready to pay the full fees of Shahrukh by distress selling their lands, if only he does one special Questions night like this following the Special Valentines Night questions. - Special Kisan Questions Night with Sensex Minister !!!

No, it seems the Indian economists, RBI, Commerce Ministers, Finance Minister and industry are determined that they must give a dubious gift to north Indian wheat farmers this Valentine's Day. All while they tell a different story to the American and European visitors, about opening up domestic Indian markets to finance, health, insurance, food retail, food logistics and food processing multinationals.
And they sing a different tune, from what they do in Delhi, when they represent India in Global Warming and Climate Change summits in foreign countries.

And all in the name of providing wheat buffer stocks, for South Indian wheat eaters and arresting inflation, that the Indian farmer is supposedly responsible for, with his futures commodities trading, his contract farming contracts, his investments in the food retail sector, his global export ambitions under the ambit of WTO.

Do Indian politicians and economists think that Indian farmers are so very illiterate ?
Is this what the Prime Minister, Finance Minister, Agriculture Minister and Commerce Minister are sitting in New Delhi for ?
This is in fact, fine tuning by New Delhi and Mumbai, of the rural surplus plunder of last six decades.
In this WTO era, it is now fine tuned into an Exit Policy for Indian farmers.
WTO will never ever be a WTO for Indian farmers, Indian politicians will ensure that. If they are delaying it today, it is only because they are still looking at ways by which WTO can also be yet another tool to deny Indian farmers, control over his life and freedom from the diktats of Delhi and Mumbai.

Congress government is planning an exit policy for Indian farmers.

The Russian thinker Lev Tolstoy, whose statue is standing on Janpath in New Delhi, said this ..."I sit on a man's back, choking him and making him carry me, and yet assure myself, and others, that I am very sorry for him and wish to ease his lot by all possible means - except by getting off his back " - Leo Tolstoy

This Congress government has changed Lal Bahadur Shastri's words to "Jai Jawan, Hai Kisan". What a mockery of Shining India, Incredible India.

Tuesday, 30 January 2007

Food Minister or Agriculture Minister ?

I recently read a statement by Shri Sharad Pawar in the course of a TV interview by Karan Thapar, asking him, what was his response to the powerless accusation made that the Indian Congress government, is much happier "importing wheat from an Australian corporation," than from local Indian farmers who are silently playing out the dance of death in the Indian killing fields, especially in the very states the Agriculture Minister represents.
The honourable minister referred to the peculiar difficulty of his situation. Maybe he does have a point. He referrred to his role as that of being burdened with the twin responsibilities of being the Food Minister as well as the Agriculture Minister of the second most populous country in the world - India.
India also happens to have the largest number of farm dependant population, that is, those who have no sources of income other than from farming, a fact often forgotten in global negotiations on tariffs and agricultural subsidies.
I quote his response - "As representative of the government, I know better than the papers. Suppose I purchase wheat from Punjab and Haryana and if I have to sell it to the entire South India, my yearly storage charges and my transport charges alone cost me Rs 1,150 to Rs 1,160 per quintal.
My import price from Australia in southern India is somewhat close to Rs 950.
It is my responsibility to protect the interests of the consumer, and for the sake of protecting the interests, I have to build up my buffer stock, and essentially in southern India. For the sake of building the buffer stock, in the case of an eventuality, I have no choice, I will import from anywhere..."
This is very interesting and maybe a precursor to the changed Indian position in the Doha talks.
Suddenly, the Indian minister is finding a conflict in his position as Food Minister and as Agriculture Minister.
While on the one hand he is happy that farmers have the option to "not sell" wheat to the government, he is also very concerned about the wheat consumers of South India.
Does it not make sense to relieve the minister of his dual responsibilities, so that there can be separate ministers for Agriculture and for Food ? He will then not have to play pick and choose and can truly represent his constituency more appropriately.
Afterall, the constituency of food growers is very large, and now, with farmers quitting agriculture, thanks to an undeclared farm exit policy, the constituency of urban food consumers is also very large.
Yes Minister, you do have a point. There needs to be some urgent action and the terrible burden on his shoulders must be released. He can choose which ministry he wants to keep and the other can be given to effect one more expansion of the Cabinet.
In case he chooses the Food Ministry, then he can the promote the ill fated Doha Round of WTO talks. The WTO Head, the EU Trade Commissioner and now the US Agriculture Secretary, have suddenly woken up to the need for progressing on the collapsed Doha talks. Many rapid fire visits have been made to Indian and Brazil capitals, in an attempt to rope in the shakers and the movers of the Indian trade and agriculture ministries.
Of course, the poor African farmers, the Indian farmers, and all those who are supposed to benefit from WTO revival, are still not aware that such hectic and back breaking efforts are being made " on their behalf " by such good intentioned folks.